CIA predicts the possibility of ‘outright collapse of Nigeria’ ,( CIA vs Obasanjo) – Abiodun Egunjobi

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I challenge Baba Obasanjo to read the report and reply CIA again.

A conference report titled ‘Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future‘ by a group of experts assembled by the United States National Intelligence Council predicts the possibility of ‘outright collapse of Nigeria‘!

The Report and President Obasanjo’ Letter

CIA predicts the possibility of 'outright collapse of Nigeria“While currently Nigeria’s leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja.

“If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region. Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of destabilizing entire neighborhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilized. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years—if ever—and not without massive international assistance.”

On the 17th of May 2005, President Obasanjo sent a 7 paragraph reaction titled ‘Report of the US Intelligence Council” to be read on the floor of the Senate

“As a means of informing ourselves, I hereby forward a copy of the United States National Intelligence Council document on “Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future” for your attention. I am sending this to you not because I am alarmed by the report but because if we know what others think of us and about us, we can prevent what they project for us.

“As a person who has participated in similar so-called “expert group” on issues, situations and regions, I know that the predictions and projections can be wide off the mark because both politics and economics cannot be absolutely predicted and their dynamics can fool the greatest and best expert. But it is important for us to know that we are being rated low, not because of what is happening to us from outside but because of what we do to, for and by ourselves internally.

“I believe that it is only God and ourselves that can map our present and future. No outsider can do that accurately for us. I know that some people glibly talk of the probability of Nigeria as a failed State. I believe that they are living in the past and incapable of noticing and appreciating the positive strides we are making on all fronts and the determination of the Nigerian people to join hands to consolidate democracy and promote sustainable growth and development.

“Because they are stuck to old ideas and dreams as well as stereotypes about us and our capabilities, they cannot see the New Nigeria that we are building collectively as we move beyond the past but allowing the past and present to strengthen and sustain our future.

“Similar experts at the beginning of the second half of the 20th Century predicted worse scenarios for South East Asia. In fact, at the dawn of independence in Africa, Africa’s chances were rated much better than that of South East Asia, but because they pulled themselves together, the predictions and projections about them have been proven false. In the case of Africa, the reverse has been true as the early favourable predictions and projections for the continent have remained largely unattained.

“If our detractors cannot see our far-reaching reforms, our fight against waste and corruption, the new culture of prudence and service delivery that is gradually emerging, the various political reforms including the on-going National Political Reform Conference as well as the sacrifices our people are making to ensure economic progress and democratic consolidation as indicators of progress and a radical departure from the past, then they must have some dubious or diabolical benchmarks for measuring efforts at ensuring oneness, unity, stability, indivisibility, prosperity, development and growth of our dear country.

“Our performance in the last three years has, in my view, been very good just as our performance in ensuring stability, peace, economic progress and good governance in West Africa and, indeed, the whole of Africa.

“I believe that we can and should disprove the modern experts of the United States Intelligence Council who are like the prophets of doom and by the Grace of God, for Nigeria in this first decade of the 21st Century, we must be determined to show that we are neither a basket case nor walking on a banana peel.

“I wish you well as you read the report and would very much appreciate your reactions, perspectives and suggestions. For me, it is a challenge and it calls for extra work. We owe that much to our people, to Africa, humanity and to God Almighty, our Creator. May God bless Nigeria and Africa.”


Baba, where are you? We have your position in 2005 . We will love to hear your position today. Baba did not take into consideration vagaries of change. Baba did not look at this report objectively.

Now , Nigeria is a failed state. Lucifer is in charge of Nigeria. Baba Obasanjo, what will be your response today?

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